Regional dynamics in Nigerian politics: voting in the 2023 presidential elections

As geopolitical and religious divisions deepen in Nigeria, this briefing examines voter behaviour in the 2023 presidential election using a political economy approach. It analyses the forces driving ethnic voting and explores how elite messaging, campaign strategies and access to state resources shape electoral outcomes. Challenging conventional electoral theories, the briefing argues that ethno-religious ties remain central to voter mobilisation, reinforced by elite narratives and the promise of state patronage. The findings show that candidates frame development agendas to appeal to sectional interests, with campaign rhetoric differing sharply between ethnicity across regions, minority groups, the Muslim-majority north and the predominantly Christian south. These contrasts reflect broader struggles over federal power and the allocation of resources. The analysis provides an in-depth perspective of how voter behaviour is shaped less by ideology and more by the competition for state control and economic advantage.