Description
Background:Momentum in team sports is frequently discussed (McCarthy et al., 2022) but remains challenging to quantify, particularly in sports with structured possession rules such as netball. Traditional runs tests assume uniform scoring probabilities and fail to account for the centre-pass advantage, limiting their applicability to netball.
Objective:
This study uses a simulation-based approach to evaluate scoring momentum for the Australian international team by comparing observed scoring runs to expected runs under conditions where no momentum effect is assumed.
Methods:
Match data from all thirty-eight fixtures of the 2022 Commonwealth Games netball tournament were analysed to produce regression models of scoring probabilities from centre passes and turnovers based on world ranking positions. These models were used within 10,000 simulations of each of Australia’s matches. The simulations replicated netball’s alternating centre-pass structure and generated expected distributions of scoring runs. Observed runs of three, four, and five or more consecutive goals were then compared to simulated expectations using percentile rankings and standardised Z-scores.
Results:
Australia exceeded the median expected benchmark for scoring runs in five of their seven matches, demonstrating a consistent ability to generate extended scoring sequences. Significant deviations from expected runs were observed in two early group-stage matches against lower-ranked opposition. In contrast, later matches showed closer alignment with expected values, suggesting performance stabilised as competition intensity increased. These findings indicate that Australia’s momentum profile was not solely a function of ranking advantage but reflected situational factors across the tournament.
Conclusion:
This case study demonstrates the value of a simulation-based approach for identifying scoring momentum in elite netball by contextualising observed run patterns against expected performance under conditions where no momentum is assumed. Findings illustrate how Australia’s scoring sequences deviated from simulated expectations across a major international tournament, providing insight into how elite teams generate and regulate momentum. This approach offers a practical framework for performance analysts to distinguish meaningful momentum effects from expected scoring variation, supporting evidence-based preparation and in-competition decision-making.
| Period | 13 May 2026 |
|---|---|
| Event title | Festival of AI, High Performance in Sport, Health & Longevity (HAIPER 2026): 15th ISPAS World Congress of Performance Analysis of Sport |
| Event type | Conference |
| Location | Split, CroatiaShow on map |
| Degree of Recognition | International |
Keywords
- Scoring Momentum
- Performance Analysis
- Simulation modelling
- International Netball