The impact of changing cigarette smoking habits and smoke-free legislation on orofacial cleft incidence in the United Kingdom: Evidence from two time-series studies

Background Both active and passive cigarette smoking have previously been associated with orofacial cleft aetiology. We aimed to analyse the impact of declining active smoking prevalence and the implementation of smoke-free legislation on the incidence of children born with a cleft lip and/or palate within the United Kingdom. Methods and findings We conducted regression analysis using national administrative data in the United Kingdom between 2000-2018. The main outcome measure was orofacial cleft incidence, reported annually for England, Wales and Northern Ireland and separately for Scotland. First, we conducted an ecological study with longitudinal time-series analysis using smoking prevalence data for females over 16 years of age. Second, we used a natural experiment design with interrupted time-series analysis to assess the impact of smoke-free legislation. Over the study period, the annual incidence of orofacial cleft per 10,000 live births ranged from 14.2-16.2 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 13.4-18.8 in Scotland. The proportion of active smokers amongst females in the United Kingdom declined by 37% during the study period. Adjusted regression analysis did not show a correlation between the proportion of active smokers and orofacial cleft incidence in either dataset, although we were unable to exclude a modest effect of the magnitude seen in individual-level observational studies. The data in England, Wales and Northern Ireland suggested an 8% reduction in orofacial cleft incidence (RR 0.92, 95%CI 0.85 to 0.99; P = 0.024) following the implementation of smoke-free legislation. In Scotland, there was weak evidence for an increase in orofacial cleft incidence following smoke-free legislation (RR 1.16, 95%CI 0.94 to 1.44; P = 0.173). Conclusions These two ecological studies offer a novel insight into the influence of smoking in orofacial cleft aetiology, adding to the evidence base from individual-level studies. Our results suggest that smoke-free legislation may have reduced orofacial cleft incidence in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.