Rethinking post-16 course choice: developing a tool to measure curricular interest and support learner progression

Young people’s decisions about post-16 courses are critical to their educational and career trajectories. Yet too often, students make these choices with limited reflection on the curricular content of courses available to them or how these align with their interests. This paper presents findings from a developmental study that piloted a novel self-reflection tool, designed to measure learners’ intrinsic interest in 24 Level 3 (post-16) courses prior to enrolment at a sixth form in the south-west of England. Drawing on 674 pre-course questionnaires completed by 191 students, the study explores whether learners’ course-related interest and confidence in assessment are associated with subsequent course completion. Independent samples t-tests and logistic regression analyses across the eight most populated courses reveal statistically significant relationships between pre-enrolment interest levels and learner persistence, particularly in relation to curricular content and assessment confidence. The paper situates these findings within broader debates on post-16 decision-making, highlighting the risks of course overload, the limits of career-oriented guidance, and the marginalisation of student interest in policy discourse. While the predictive power of the findings is limited and not the primary focus of the study, the analysis supports further exploration of subject-specific interest as a potential decision-making aid. The paper reflects on implications for educational research, learner agency, and future methodological development.